Speed never goes into slumps? Don't mention that to Juan Pierre. Off the top of my head, the approximate batting average range for a fantasy team that leads their league in AVG is roughly .285 and up to .305 (for 5x5 based leagues and depending on your league dynamics). Below is a list of months Juan Pierre has hit below .270:
2006 - (April .258, May .226)
2005 - (May .226, June .262, August .248)
2004 - (June .232)
2003 - (April .266)
2002 - (June .235, August .215)
Let's process this for a moment. He averages 1 homer a year. Topped 50 RBIs once in his career. And NOW YOUR TELLING ME he hits less than .270 2-3 months out of the baseball season? Throw in the fact, word out of Dodger camp is Pierre will hit 2nd behind Rafael Furcal, drastically limiting his ability to steal 50 SB's. (Luis Castillo never stole more than 21 bases hitting 2nd behind Pierre in Florida.) Pierre is worthless for 2 months out of the year.
Last year was Pierre's walk year and I bet he was HELL bent on getting his 55+ sb's on paper before seeking his new contract for the year. After nailing his 9 million per a year deal, that little motivational speaker has now left the building.
It keeps getting better, toss him into a lower tier offensive team like the Dodgers and now his run total is suspect as well.
I've seen Pierre so far this spring drafted/ranked anywhere from 48 to 70. MISTAKE. Given all the information we know right now and unless Rafael Furcal gets hurt, I got Juan Pierre's top range at: .291, 3 HRs (accounts for generosity and flukes), 89 runs, 45 rbis and 42 steals. BUT bottoming out at .270, 1 HR, 72 runs, 32 rbis and 30 steals. He should still steal 30, but those secretly hoping for 50 or 60 will sadly be disappointed. I would not take him any higher than 90, I would much rather risk my chips on MLB level unknowns Delmon Young or Daisuke Matsuzaka. Or even go after closers in that area of the draft.
The best way to manage owning a Juan Pierre, let someone else draft him, let him go through a month slump at some point of the year and buy him on the low from a frustrated owner to pad your SB totals.
Bonus stats, hes not walking either.
Career BB's:
2006 - 32
2005 - 41
2004 - 45
2003 - 55
2002 - 31
2001 - 41
2000 - 13
Source: www.a1articles.com
